Texts in English

Global security considerations – XAVIER RAUFER – February 2009

Threats – what kind of world do we live in?

Threats do not only come from the outside. Without being arrogant or paranoid, our society also has its own weaknesses, which make us vulnerable when it comes to global security. We are going to look at both internal (endogenous) and external (exogenous) threats, but first, it’s important to emphasise a fact …

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Chaos, terrorism and beyond: a strategic prognosis

When a new era begins, the greatest difficulty is to recognize, sufficiently early, the identity of the enemy, the location of the battlefield, the nature of the rules of engagement – if such exist at all. What conclusions can we reach in respect of the real dangers of the world at present?…

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The menace: who? where? why? how? (2004)

The objective menace: that which stems from world chaos

Until yesterday the enemy was known, stable and familiar. Today the enemy is evasive, strange and incomprehensible – but just as dangerous, if not more so. During the Cold War, all threats at a strategic level were constant, stable, slow, identifiable, indeed almost familiar (the Warsaw Pact). Even the terrorist threat was stable and explicable.

The menace: who? where? why? how? (2004)

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The “Degenerate guerrillas” (1995)

In Europe, the Kurdistan Worker’s Party, or PKK, is the most famous of these hybrid entities combining a “political” appearance (national liberation, independence) and a criminal reality : terrorism and narco-trafficking. But the PKK is in no way an exception and “narco-guerrillas” can be found nowadays in Asia, Latin America and Africa; specifically in Afghanistan, Burma, Cambodia, Colombia, India, Lebanon, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Senegal, Somalia and Sri-Lanka…

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Inside the islamic-fundamentalist ideology : For them, what is the West ? What is terrorism ? (1994)

Dealing with the islamic fundamentalist and revolutionary groups, european and western experts tend to concentrate on what these organisations do, and neglect their historical background, as well as their beliefs and doctrins. Thus this article dealing with the ideology, origins, traditions etc., of two of the most dangerous islamic-revolutionary groups in the Middle-east, the egyptian Islamic Jihad (sunni) and the lebanese HizbAllah (shi’a).

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Indirect stategies in the middle-east: the rules of the game (1990)

What is known as terrorism, or political violence, has its own objective reality, and exists independently of our capacities of research, whether they be investigative or journalistic. Clandestinity and secrecy being the norm in terrorist organisations, direct knowledge of their nature is available only to their leaders; even then, it would only concern one specific movement (since no real “international” exists); over a certain period of time, due to the high risks of the game.

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