It is difficult to accurately assess the level and nature of the threats to the Asia-Pacific region from international organised crime in many forms, and the new breed of international terrorist. What is very clear is that both are present, both are here to stay, and most indicators show that both are set to increase in size, capability, and possibly operational tempo in the medium to long term.
Organised criminal and terrorist groups have been established and operative in Asia for many years. The tropical island states of the Southwest Pacific are particularly vulnerable to exploitation by international criminal groups engaged in well organised money laundering, narcotics trafficking, people smuggling, illegal immigration and so on. These states, with their underdeveloped governance structures, and comparative remoteness, offer excellent opportunities for international terrorists for financing operations, physical security in which to train, plan, and from which to deploy for operations.
What has conclusively to be proved is that regionally based international criminal organisations have been cooperating, or working with and for international terrorist organisations. Intuitively, I have to say that I believe that a nexus exists, and that such activities have, and are, taking place. Experience in the rest of the world shows that where there is a coincidence of interests, cooperation occurs in furthering these shared interests. I do not view the Asia Pacific as any different, except perhaps in terms of scale. Both possess complimentary and sophisticated structures and processes, together with "attractive" complimentary and interchangeable skills.
It remains unclear whether al Qaeda or any other international terrorist organisation has close links with regional networks, or whether regionally based groups (in Southeast Asia in the main) operate with al Qaeda or others in a more limited and distant manner. It is clear however, that there has been significant increase in regional terrorist activity in the past 10 years or so, whether or not al Qaeda has been involved is not publicly known. I believe that al Qaeda has served perhaps as a catalyst for regional groups and may have even funded some activities, including training and equipment.